Vietnam reached the same peak at 14 percent the same level. While Japan, South Korea and Singapore have relatively high income levels, China reached its peak working-age population at 20 percent the income level that the United States had at the same point. Not only are Asian countries aging much faster, but some are also becoming old before they become rich. A change in age structure that took France more than 100 years and the United States more than 60 took many East and Southeast Asian countries just 20 years. The changes will be amplified in Asian countries, which are aging faster than other world regions, according to the World Bank. And at the same time we see that’s incredibly difficult with the increasing right-wing populist movements.” It would of course make enormous sense to open the borders much more. “So some places have too many old people. “Much of the challenges at the global level are questions of distribution,” Dr. Immigration fears have fueled support for right-wing candidates across aging countries in the West and East Asia. More than a million people have taken to the streets in France to protest raising the retirement age to 64 from 62, highlighting the difficult politics of adjusting. To cope, experts say, aging rich countries will need to rethink pensions, immigration policies and what life in old age looks like.Ĭhange will not come easy. “The dividend is the interaction of the raw material and good policies.” “Demography is the raw material,” he said. Other parts of the world – some of Latin America, for example – had age structures similar to those East Asian countries’ but haven’t seen anywhere near the same growth, according to Mr. “If you don’t have employment for those people who are entering the labor force, then it’s no guarantee that the demographic dividend is going to happen,” said Carolina Cardona, a health economist at Johns Hopkins University who works with the Demographic Dividend Initiative.Įast Asian countries that hit the demographic sweet spot in the last few decades had particularly good institutions and policies in place to take advantage of that potential, said Philip O’Keefe, who directs the Aging Asia Research Hub at the ARC Center of Excellence in Population Aging Research and previously led reports on aging in East Asia and the Pacific at the World Bank. If large numbers of young adults don’t have access to jobs or education, widespread youth unemployment can even threaten stability as frustrated young people turn to criminal or armed groups for better opportunities. projects - meaning that those African countries could be even better positioned in 2050 than currently expected.īut without the right policies, a huge working-age population can backfire rather than lead to economic growth. Many of these demographic changes are already baked in: Most people who will be alive in 2050 have already been born.īut predictions always involve uncertainty, and there is evidence that sub-Saharan African countries’ fertility rates are dropping even faster than the U.N. The shift could reshape economic growth and geopolitical power balances, experts say.Ĭountries shown are those projected to have a population of 1 million or more by 2050, according to U.N. Soon, the best-balanced work forces will mostly be in South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East, according to U.N. Those countries are already aging off the list. Their large work forces have helped to drive their economic growth. This is a sea change for Europe, the United States, China and other top economies, which have had some of the most working-age people in the world, adjusted for their populations. And today’s wealthier countries will almost inevitably make up a smaller share of global G.D.P., economists say. In all of recorded history, no country has ever been as old as these nations are expected to get.Īs a result, experts predict, things many wealthier countries take for granted - like pensions, retirement ages and strict immigration policies - will need overhauls to be sustainable. Extraordinary numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working-age people to support them. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. The projections are reliable, and stark: By 2050, people age 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. China is shrinking, with India, a much younger country, overtaking it this year as the world’s most populous nation.īut what we’ve seen so far is just the beginning. The world’s demographics have already been transformed. In old populations, at least a quarter of the population is 65 or older. World Population Prospects 2022 Young populations are those in which at least a quarter of the population is under age 15.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |